BY: JASON HANCOCK
Missouri Independent
Missouri Democrats have been slowly chipping away at the GOP legislative supermajority in recent years, culminating in 2022 when the party grew its caucus in the House to its highest total in a decade.
Heading into Tuesday’s election, Republicans hold a 111-52 advantage in the House and 24-10 majority in the Senate.
Whether or not Democrats can deny the GOP its veto-proof majority on Tuesday will come down to a handful of districts across the state.
Both Democrats and Republicans expect the 19th Missouri Senate District in Boone County to flip from Red to Blue this year. That puts the spotlight on three Senate districts — the 11th in Jackson County, the 15th in St. Louis County and the 17th in Clay County — that observers believe will be the most competitive on Tuesday.
Over in the House, Republicans are spending big to knock off incumbent Democrats who squeaked out wins in 2022. But the party is also defending myriad seats in suburban districts that have grown increasingly favorable to the Democrats and supported President Joe Biden four years ago.
With all that in mind, here are 10 legislative races expected to be among the most competitive on Election Day.
Senate District 11: Republican Joe Nicola vs. Democrat Robert Sauls
Senate District 11 in Jackson County includes eastern Kansas City and Independence. While held by a Democrat for the last few election cycles, former President Donald Trump carried the district in 2020 with 54% of the vote.
Sauls, an attorney and former prosecutor, has a big fundraising advantage in the race over Nicola, a pastor.
Between his campaign committee and a PAC supporting him, Sauls reported spending more than $500,000 in October, compared to only $66,000 for Nicola.
But both candidates are also getting help from outside groups.
The Missouri Senate Campaign Committee, which supports GOP candidates for Senate, has dumped $530,000 into the race to help Nicola. Meanwhile, Sauls has gotten $600,000 in spending help from two Democratic PACs — Majority Forward and the Missouri Voter Project.
Senate District 15: Republican David Gregory vs. Democrat Joe Pereles
The 15th District includes a large portion of suburban St. Louis County, including Chesterfield and Ballwin. It has historically been a Republican stronghold, but has slowly trended towards Democrats in recent years.
Gregory, an attorney and former state legislator, reported spending $180,000 in October between his campaign committee and an independent PAC. Over the same period, the Missouri Senate Campaign Committee spent nearly $1 million to help Gregory.
Pereles, a retired Drury Hotel executive, and the PAC supporting him reported spending more than $1 million in October. Majority Forward, a PAC that supports Democratic Senate candidates, reported spending around $240,000 in the race..
Senate District 17: Republican Jerry Nolte vs. Democrat Maggie Nurrenbern
The 17th District covers Clay County and was held by Republicans until 2018, when Democratic state Sen. Lauren Arthur captured the seat in a special election and cruised to an easy re-election in 2020.
Nolte, a former state lawmaker and Clay County presiding commissioner, reported spending roughly $200,000 in October between his candidate committee and an independent PAC. The Missouri Senate Campaign Committee has chipped in $240,000.
Nurrenbern, a state representative from Kansas City, spent more than $400,000 in October, with Majority Forward and the Missouri Voter Project spending a combined $600,000 in the race.
House District 17: Republican Bill Allen vs. Democrat Shirley Mata
In a Clay County district that had been held by a Democrat for years and voted for Biden by five percentage points in 2020, Allen squeaked out a win in 2022 by only 50 votes.
Allen, vice chancellor of the online University of Arkansas Grantham, reported spending $39,000 in October, with another $70,000 in spending by the House Republican Campaign Committee.
Mata, an autoworker and union leader, reported spending $80,000 in October. She also benefited from $12,000 in spending from Taxpayers Unlimited Inc.; $10,000 from the House Democratic Campaign Committee; and $10,000 from Missouri Women For Progress.
House District 34: Republican JC Crossley vs. Democrat Kemp Strickler
This race is a rematch from 2022, when Strickler beat Crossley by only 45 votes in a Jackson County district that voted for Biden in 2020.
Strickler, a retired Hallmark executive, reported spending $74,000 in October, compared to only $13,000 for Crossley, a retired business owner.
But Crossley has benefited from more than $150,000 in spending this month by the House Republican Campaign Committee. Meanwhile, a group called Missourians for a Fair Economy spent $7,000 in the race, and the House Democratic Campaign Committee spent $11,000.
House District 96: Republican Brad Christ vs. Democrat Leslie Derrington
Another rematch from 2022, when Christ bested Derrington by more than 500 votes in the St. Louis County district that voted for Biden four years ago.
Christ, a corporate risks and benefits consultant, reported spending $84,000 in October, with another $110,000 from the House Republican Campaign Committee.
Derrington, a stay-at-home mother, reported spending $30,000, with another $11,000 coming from the House Democratic Campaign Committee.
House District 100: Republican Philip Oehlerking vs. Democrat Colin Lovett
This is yet another 2022 rematch in a St. Louis County district carried by Biden four years ago.
Oehlerking, who worked previously at the Missouri Higher Education Loan Authority, defeated Lovett by only 200 votes in 2022. He reported spending only $8,000 in October. The House Republican Campaign Committee spent more than $80,000 this month on the race.
Lovett, a business owner, reported spending $81,000 in October, with another $7,000 from the House Democratic Campaign Committee.
House District 101: Republican Ben Keathley vs. Democrat Jacqueline Cotton
Keathley, an attorney, won this St. Louis County seat by more than 500 votes two years ago, despite it going for Biden in 2020.
He reported spending $33,000 in October, with the House Republican Campaign Committee chipping in more than $100,000.
Cotton, a small business owner, reported spending $10,000 in October, with $9,000 in support from the House Democratic Campaign Committee.
House District 105: Republican Colin Wellenkamp vs. Democrat Ron Odenthal
Republican state Rep. Adam Schwadron gave up this St. Charles County seat to run for secretary of state. He held the seat for Republicans in 2020 despite Biden carrying the district.
Wellenkamp, who serves as executive director of the Mississippi River Cities and Towns Initiative, reported spending $14,000 in October. He also got $120,000 in support from the House Republican Campaign Committee.
Odenthal, a retired KPMG senior network analyst, reported spending only $6,000. The House Democratic Campaign Committee has spent around $13,000 in the race.
House District 136 Republican Jim Robinette vs. Democrat Stephanie Hein
Hein, a professor emerita at Missouri State University, flipped this Springfield district for the Democrats in 2022 by just over 200 votes.
She reported spending $85,000 this month compared to $49,000 by Robinette, an Army veteran.
The House Republican Campaign Committee has spent more than $150,000 in the race to boost Robinette, while the House Democratic Campaign Committee has spent $8,000 and Missourians for a Fair Economy spent $13,000.
